Rate of Exchange: The Costs of Democratic Transition in Kyrgyzstan, and Who Picks up the Bill

(image credit RIA Novosti)

the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan announced on July 14 that it estimates a cost of 449 Million Kyrgyz Som (KGS) to conduct the upcoming Presidential Elections. The election marks the first change of the top executive since Roza Otunbayeva was selected as Interim/Transitional President in a package vote along with adopting the new Constitution that expressly limits the powers of the President in July 2010.

Otunbayeva has stayed true to her inaugural promise not to seek re-election, and in her absence a who's-who of Kyrgyz politicians have hinted at their intention to run. Currently, there are 14 declared candidates (5 declared last week), the most notable of which is Kamchybek Tashiev of the nationalist Ata-Jurt party. The big name not on the ticket at present is that of Social Democrat (SDPK) Almazbek Atambaev. Both are both current leading figures within the Jogoru Kenesh Parliament - Atambaev as Prime Minister and Tashiev as leader of the largest party in the unicameral legislature.

The new Constitution was written with the express purpose of limiting the authority of the President, and turning Kyrgzystan into a Parliament-dominated Democracy - the first in Central Asia - after two popular uprisings removed strong-arm Presidents in 2005 and 2010. That the most powerful politicians in Parliament are abandoning it to seek the Presidency suggests a possible return to a more empowered Executive.

Read more »

Putting on a Show: Friends, Enemies & 'Frenemies' in Kyrgyz Politics

December 20, 2010, Bishkek – 24.kg News Agency
written by Asel Otorbayeva
style edit by Ryan Weber

Once again, Kyrgyz politicians place the importance of assigning government positions over actual governing.


Old Political Enemies

In its second attempt, the Kyrgyz parliament finally succeeded in electing a speaker. Their choice was the leader of the party [Ata-Jurt] which previously called for the return of ousted President Bakiev [actually, a rumor], and is comprised of many former allies to the fallen President.

Opponents [of Ata-Jurt] were highly critical of its intentions in the run-up to Parliamentary elections in October, charging it with a variety of "sins." Some even suggested members of Ata-Jurt helped instigate the June riots in Osh the ignited ethnic tension [and in several ways increased Ata-Jurts Nationalist rhetoric going into the election]. But the accusations against Ata-Jurt were never proven, and the other parties dropped attempts to link Ata-Jurt with the violence. Being veteran politicians, rather than defend themselves, Ata-Jurt enlisted [Kyrgyz] victims of the June events to protect their reputation.

Relatives of those killed during the April coup that removed Bakiev responded passionately to the former Bakiev administrators, [throwing eggs and] attempting to block their admittance to the new parliament. They demanded that such politicians never participate in government again, but the other ["pro-government"] parties did nothing to block their participation [such as passing a controversial Lustration law]. After a while, the general public acquiesced. [Respublika] party - as if it had forgotten the public distaste for Ata-Jurt - instructed the Social Democrat party (SDPK) to "make friends" with Ata-Jurt. They explained that economic concerns must trump personal animosity.

Now Almazbek Atambayev, SDPK leader and [recently-elected] Prime Minister must find a way to work with Akhmatbek Kelidbekov - the new Speaker of Parliament from Ata-Jurt. Whether they want to or not, their cooperation is vital for any progress [in Kyrgyzstan].

Read more »

Take Two: Kyrgyzstan Finally Has New Government

Newly-elected Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambaev (at center) joined by Omurbek Babanov (sans tie) and other members of the successful majority coalition that finally gave Kyrgyzstan a functional government on December 17. (photo credit S. Dosalieva, AKI Press)

Repost from Eurasianet

December 17, 2010 - 2:24pm, by David Trilling

Three of Kyrgyzstan’s quarreling parties have finally succeeded – after two months and one failed attempt – to form a government. The partnership may seem an unlikely one, but it unifies the country’s fractious north and southand all hopes are on this group to shepherd the country safely into a new year without political instability and violence.

Parliament convened on December 17 to approve the coalition proposed by Respublika leader Omurbek Babanov. Provisional President Roza Otunbayeva chose Babanov to lead the process on December 4, after the first attempt by her Social Democratic Party’s (SDPK) Almazbek Atambayev, fell through.

This coalition looks much like the first, botched one, with a stark exception. In place of the pro-Otunbayeva Ata-Meken party, it includes the nationalist Ata-Jurt party, whose Myktybek Abdyldayev will take the speaker position; Atambayev has assumed the premiership. Together with Respublika, the coalition holds 77 of the legislature’s 120 seats, a comfortable majority.

Read more »

Who Will Become Author of Kyrgyz Political Default?

Reposted from News Agency 24.kg

Bishkek - December 14, 2010 (0913 hrs)
written by Asel Otorbayeva
style edit by Ryan Weber

In the throes of giving birth to a parliamentary majority coalition, Kyrgyzstan may suffer a second miscarriage. The reason is obvious - excessive greed [by party leaders] for key positions in the future parliament.


Which Prime Minister is Best?

The main battle area among the five parties appears to be for the top spot [in the restructured Kyrgyz] government. Leaders of Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) and Ar-Namys party both want to become Prime Minister. For better or worse, neither are strangers to the political arena - each possessing ample experience as well as political baggage. And neither leader, Almazbek Atambayev of SDPK or Felix Kulov of Ar-Namys, show any sign of willingly stepping aside.

The Respublika party was chosen for the second mandate to form a majority coalition, and its leader, Omurbek Babanov, now faces one of the most difficult challenges of his career. Much younger than the other party leaders, and with less time in politics, he is finding it difficult to compete. His most persuasive arguments are unable to overcome the [entrenched] SDPK or the "iron shield" of Ar-Namys. It is no secret that ambitions for the Prime Minister position are entwined with hopes for the 2011 Presidential election. SDPK and Ar-Namys both aspire to the presidency, and controlling the Prime Minister may be a necessary 'trump card' for that effort.

Speaker’s Throne as Alternative

[Realizing that the new Kyrgyz Constitution dramatically increases the power of parliament, the position of Speaker of Parliament has become much more valuable. Now, not only the leader of the Ata-Meken party, [Omurbek Tekebaev] aspires to the post [he once held], but also members of Respublika, Ar-Namys, and Ata-Zhurt's co-chairman, Akhmatbek Kelidbekov.

According to the Constitution, which Tekebaev authored, tremendous authority resides in the hands of the Speaker. Deputies of the fifth convocation - the current parliament - seem unaware of the trap inherent in Tekebaev's government structure. He "planted a bomb with a clock mechanism continuously ticking like a reminder: the Prime Minister and the Speaker shall, as Siamese twins, breathe, sleep and most importantly - work in unison. Otherwise - [say] goodbye to the coalition, and hello [to the] dissolution of parliament!"

Assuming Felix Kulov steps aside, and his sworn [enemy] Atambaev becomes Prime Minister. How well can Atambaev work with [Speaker] Kelidbekov? Will this arrangement have a [viable] future? Of course not. And what about another combination - Speaker Kulov and Prime Minister Atambaev?

Whatever the experts say about the necessity or political wisdom of regional balance [i.e. the inclusion of Ata-Jurt as a "Southern" party along with the other, predominantly "Northern" factions] to the long-term stability of state, most of the existing coalitions are [destined to be] short-lived.

Read more »

Waiting for Parliament and a Kyrgyz Santa Claus

by Ryan Weber

For those of us anxiously waiting to see what sort of governing coalition will emerge from the Kyrgyz parliamentary negotiations, it's beginning to feel more and more like we may be waiting for a 'Godot' - the fictional character in Samuel Beckett's drama who, (in)famously, never arrives. Or perhaps, with the December 24 deadline for the formation of the next parliamentary coalition, it's up to the equally-fictional Santa Claus to finally bring resolution to the Kyrgyz political situation.

After requiring the full 15 working day period allowed by the constitution, the SDPK-Respublika-AtaMeken coalition failed to elect Omurbek Tekebaev as Speaker of Parliament on December 2. Since the coalition agreement was based on the awarding of the Speaker position to Tekebaev, as well as the Prime Ministership to SDPK leader Almazbek Atambaev, and Deputy PM to Respublika's Omurbek Babanov, the coalition couldn't enforce its contract, and thus dissolved. With 67 nominal coalition members in the 120-seat legislature, the surprising defeat with just 58 votes for Tekebaev demonstrated the practical, as well as theoretical, shortcomings of the agreement. Just days after signing a pact of solidarity, coalition members voted against their own coalition.

On December 3, an embarrassed Atambaev asked Kyrgyz President Roza Otunbayeva to select another party to form the coalition. Originally, Otunbayeva said Ata-Meken, as the other "pro-government" party, would be tasked with the duty if SDPK failed. Instead, whether because Tekebaev declined the opportunity, or Otunbayeva reacted to his apparent unpopularity, Omurbek Babanov and Respublika were given the charge along with a new deadline - December 24.

With the race to form a coalition once again wide open - with rumors that perhaps 4, or even all 5 political parties will join together - the possible make up of the ruling Kyrgyz government remains an item of intense, if largely uninformed, speculation.

Read more »

If at First you Don't Succeed: Kyrgyz Parliament Takes Another Shot at Forming Majority Coalition

by Ryan Weber

The march of Kyrgyzstan's fledgling parliamentary democracy took another hit on December 4 as the recently-announced "Coalition for the Sake of Stability" turned out to be a "Stillborn Coalition" as it failed to achieve its first test of forming a parliamentary government.

Despite its 3 parties controlling 67 delegates - a majority of the 120-seat Jogorku Kenesh parliament - it was only able to muster 58 votes in support of its candidate for Speaker of Parliament. That candidate, the leader of the Ata-Meken party and a former Speaker of Parliament, Omurbek Tekebaev (pictured below right), failed to receive the necessary 61 votes because 9 coalition MPs (identities unknown) didn't vote for him.

Tekebaev has been out of government positions since 2006, but remains a major player in Kyrgyz politics as a former opposition activist, interim deputy chaiman, and architect of the new Kyrgyz Constitution adopted in July. With the possible exception of President Roza Otunbayeva, he is the individual most responsible for adoption of the strong parliamentary system under which Kyrgyzstan is struggling to operate.

Read more »

Kyrgyz Parliament Sets Majority Coalition

The Kyrgyz Parliament in their first (and so far, only) session on November 10. With the formation of a majority coalition on November 30, parliament is expected to begin regular meetings soon. (photo credit AFP)

by Ryan Weber

As reported earlier (Nov. 24 and Nov. 29), the Kyrgyz Parliament has been deadlocked since its opening session on November 10 because no single party, or even group of two parties, controls enough seats to form a majority of the 120-member Jogorku Kenesh Parliament and name a Prime Minister, as required by the Constitution.

On November 30, just 2 days before the deadline set by President Roza Otunbayeva, that deadlock has finally been broken. After weeks of intense negotiations, including meetings with the rival Ata-Jurt and Ar-Namys parties, the SDPK party revealed an agreement with longtime fellow "pro-government" socialist party Ata-Meken and the new business-oriented party, Respublika.

This was the exact coalition that analysts expected to emerge following the October 10 elections, but breakdowns in the negotiations, accusations of international bias, and stubborn party leaders caused the "obvious" coalition to stall time and time again. Just November 29, Farid Niyazov, spokesman for the SDPK party, said that the two most likely coalition outcomes would include the Ata-Jurt party, which controls 28 seats in parliament, the most of any party.

But on November 30, an agreement was signed - without Ata-Jurt.

Read more »

Kyrgyz Horse-Trading: Negotiations Continue in Parliament Coalition Building

Kyrgyz President Roza Otunbayeva and SDPK leader and presumptive Prime Minister, Almazbek Atambayev. Otunbayeva appointed Atambayev to form a majority coalition in parliament, but SDPK has struggled to deliver as the deadline nears. (photo credit RFE/RL)

by Ryan Weber

Negotiations to form a majority coalition in the Kyrgyz Parliament continue despite the passing of the November 27 deadline issued by President Roza Otunbayeva on November 11. At that time, she gave the Social Democrat party (SDPK) 15 days to assemble a functional coalition among the 5 parties represented in parliament. She also issued the stipulation that if they could not reach such an agreement, coalition-building power would transfer to the minority Ata-Meken party.

Depending on how one counts, that put the deadline at either November 27 (if 15 calendar days), or December 2 (if 15 working days). As the horse-trading heated up last week, SDPK party spokesman Farid Niyazov announced repeatedly that SDPK would be unveiling its coalition by November 30... then December 1... then December 3.

The Respublika party is a known coalition partner of SDPK, but together the two parties only control 49 seats in parliament, 11 short of the majority. The talks, which initially focused on the Ata-Meken party, have since expanded to include meetings with Ata-Jurt and Ar-Namys, leaving the possibility of a previously inconceivable cohort.

Rumors abounded late last week about the possibility of Ar-Namys leader Felix Kulov as the Attorney General, or Ata-Jurt's Kamchybek Tashiev as a deputy Prime Minister. Ar-Namys, the least likely candidate for partnership, reportedly snubbed these overtures, demanding the Prime Ministership as a condition for its participation in the majority.

Apparently, SDPK leader Almazbek Atambayev continued his furious pace of multi-party negotiations over the weekend, and has emerged on Monday (Nov 29) with what appeared initially as the most likely conglomeration - SDPK, Respublika, Ata-Meken.

The news comes less than a day after Niyazov told News Agency 24.kg that "the most possible variants of the parliament coalition in Kyrgyzstan are SDPK-Respublika-Ata-Jurt or SDPK - Ata-Meken, Ata-Jurt."

Instead, later that same day a draft agreement surfaced in which SDPK would award the PM to its own leader, Atambaev, while Ata-Meken leader Omurbek Tekebaev would become Deputy PM, and Respublika's Omurbek Babanov would be the Speaker of Parliament.

Until parliament meets again, the exact nature of the coalition is likely to remain uncertain. Ata-Jurt's willingness to consider working alongside its perceived nemeses SDPK and Ata-Meken is encouraging, as has been Respublika's role as a moderating, economic-focused influence between the progressive "pro-government" and "old guard" factions.

The Great (Guessing) Game: Imagining the Unlikely Kyrgyz Parliamentary Coalition

PHOTO: Almazbek Atambaev and Omurbek Tekebaev, shown here during the 2009 Presidential election when both were protesting incumbent Kurmanbek Bakiev's victory. The two now face a new challenge trying to form a coalition government between their SDPK and Ata-Meken parties. (courtesy AKIpress)

by Ryan Weber

Since the Kyrgyz CEC announced its official vote tally, and the resulting number of seats awarded to each of the 5 parties, on November 10, politicians and analysts have been predicting what the eventual ruling coalition would look like. Initial speculation that the pro-government Social Democrats (SDPK) would caucasus with Ata-Meken to form a majority were premature; even together the two parties don't control the 60 seats required to hold majority, and divisions and delays have continued to plague negotiations.

Instead, almost out-of-the-gate, SDPK announced a coalition with the new Respublika party, and began working to secure Ata-Meken as the third and final component. But this too has failed to materialize, and with the November 27 deadline issued by President Roza Otunbayeva just days away, Kyrgyz political calculus is headed rapidly into the realm of advanced theoretical mathematics. Ata-Meken, as the smallest party in Parliament with just 18 seats, would clearly benefit from joining the coalition, if not for the fact that if SDPK's efforts fail, Otunbayeva will next turn to Ata-Meken to lead the formation of government.

Ata-Jurt and Ar-Namys, both of whom swept into Parliament on much higher-than-expected results, were initially quite upset at winning a plurality of votes, only to wind up in the parliamentary opposition. But the failure of a "pro-government" bloc to materialize gives both an opening to gain influence by working with their former opponents.

Read more »

States and Stats

A quick update to a few of my earlier posts. Following the very small "protest" in Ala-Too on June 30, today the opposition finally began its Bishkek campaign. Nothing overwhelming, but with just 20 days until the "election," the first signs of the main opposition candidate, Atambaev, showed up in the form of posters around town.

As with the earlier Nazaraliev (minor party) posters, these are exclusively confined to light posts, electic boxes, and public walls - in short, (free) public spaces. This contrasts with the incumbent Bakiev campaign, which involves more than a dozen major billboards around town and posters (just a red background with the name "Bakiev" in white) placed in home and shop windows. It pays dividends to show one's personal support of Bakiev, just as it is less risky to put Atambaev posters on things no one owns.

A few other tidbits made public by the (often pro-government) new agency 24.kg:

Kurmanbek Bakiev (incumbent, Ak Jol party)

Current spending: $341,000 [how he got so many billboard & TV ads for this price is a mystery]

Total budget: $826,476,744

Almaz Atambaev (opposition)

Current spending: $104,384,534 [he must have spent this outside of Bishkek]

Total budget: $104,702, 325

Toktaym Umetalieva (only woman in the race, just for contrast)

Current spending: $5,100

Total budget: $14,465

The Freedom House ranking of Democractic "progress" is also an interesting, if rather blunt, analysis. It notes that in 2008, Kyrgystan received a score of 5 for Political Rights and a 4 for Civil Liberties, both on a scale of 1 (Free) to 7 (Not Free).

Other 5-4 countries include Uganda, Thailand, Nigeria, and Lebanon.

The full report is here. The opening graphs (pie chart of Free/Partially Free/Not Free countries in the world) are hilarious.

According to these rankings, Kyrgyzstan is a "Partially Free State," though more recently (June 30), Freedom House for the first time classified the Kyrgyz Republic as an "authoritarian state," which is a far cry from the more common "island of democacy," or "most democratic in Central Asia" tag that often gets affixed to Kyrgyzstan by Western countries looking to do business with it.

the June 30 report was a mid-year assessment published by Freedom House including a fascinating breakdown of different elements (still on the 1-7 scale). The combined figure gives Kyrgyz a 6.04 ranking (anything over 6 qualifies as an "authoritarian state"). This is actually the first year Kyrgyz fits this definition (mostly in the 5.90s previously), thanks in large part to a slight up-tick in suppression of the media in 2009.

It's a short read (with a great table of data), so if you're actually interested, check this out:http://www.freedomhouse.eu/images/nit2009/kyrgyzstan.pdf

The important thing to note is that the numbers don't change AT ALL before/after the supposed "Tulip Revolution" of 2005. The President changed, but the government structure, degree of political rights, and civil liberties didn't waver one iota.

and for comparison, here is the neighborhood:

Uzbekistan (27 million people): 6.89

Turkmenistan (5 million people): 6.93

Takikistan (6.7 million people): 6.14

Kazakhstan (15.5 million people): 6.32

Russia (142 million people): 6.11 (first time Russia's over 6 since 1999)

So to reiterate: Kyrgyzstan is a country of somewhat open civil liberties, but very closed political operations. You can more-or-less do or say what you want, so long as you do not endanger the political status quo.

Still, I have a lot of problems with the basic assumptions of these reports, especially the insistance that countries must always be moving along the linear axis of "more" or "less" democratic - that's just not the case. Most countries (including the US) are varying degrees of semi-democratic, and they fluctuates in a very 3-dimensional space, often changing, but not often affecting their relationship to such a limited "free" vs "not free" criteria.

Most US citizens didn't want to go to war in Iraq (or to be less contentious, polls regularly show that most US citizens have wanted public healthcare for more than a decade). But the government "of the people" hasn't reflected this demonstrated public will. According to Freedom House, that's Democracy.

Conversely, the majority of Kyrgyz probably do want Bakiev to be president, even though the system doesn't really allow them to choose, and so this reflection of public will is called "Authoritarian - Not Free."

The reality is murky, and the loaded terminology of Freedom House and other "Democracy Promotion" agencies, chief among them the NDI, only exacerbate the misleading assumptions.