Post-Vote, Declined Mandates Reshaped Kyrgyzstan’s Legislature

Reposted from Eurasianet.org

by Ryan Weber

Did Kyrgyzstan’s voters get the leaders they chose?

On December 17, the Respublika party announced the successful formation of a new governing coalition to lead Kyrgyzstan’s parliament. This second attempt at forming a majority succeeded where the first failed because Respublika, which led the effort, is unattached to the North/South regional divide or pro-/anti-government legacy of the other four winning parties.

But Respublika is unlike Kyrgyzstan’s other political parties in another way as well -- by the time the party came to power, most of its minorities and women had declined their seats in parliament, leaving a 100 percent ethnic Kyrgyz and mostly male party.

According to the Kyrgyz electoral code, voters cast ballots for a party’s list of candidates. Based on votes, each party is awarded a certain number of seats that go to the top candidates on their respective party lists. If a candidate declines his “mandate,” then the seat passes to the next highest candidate on his party’s list.

One candidate from Ata-Meken, Joomart Oturbayev, declined his mandate despite being #3 on the party’s list. There are rumors that Ata-Jurt co-chairman Kamchybek Tashiev wanted Dinara Isaeva, wife of former Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov (who is in hiding) and #12 on the Ata-Jurt party list, to decline hers, but she refused. Ata-Jurt, Ar-Namys, and the Social Democrats (SDPK) have not had a single candidate refuse a mandate.

Respublika, on the other hand, has had an incredible 18 mandates -- of its 23 total -- refused by candidates in the party’s top positions.

The combined effect of these voluntary exclusions has been to make Respublika’s parliamentary delegation much less diverse than its original party list -- the list voters elected. Alevtina Zavgorodnyaya (#8) and Yuri Nizovskii (#27), both ethnic Russians, were the only non-Kyrgyz candidates within Respublika’s top 50 positions. After they both declined their mandates, Respublika became the only party in parliament not to have a single non-Kyrgyz delegate. Four women candidates declined to enter parliament for Respublika, though five remained.

The resulting Respublika faction in parliament is exclusively Kyrgyz and 78 percent male -- i.e. not very representative of Kyrgyzstan as a whole.

No Thank You: Many Respublika Candidates Refused Mandates

by Ryan Weber

Though not yet much reported, something odd took place in the 2010 Kyrgyz Parliamentary elections. It occurred after all the votes were tabulated, but before the new MPs were sworn in.

It wasn't fraud per se, nor was it at all illegal. Instead, it was the unusual expansion of a common, but usually isolated, practice of elected party candidates declining to accept a seat in parliament (their "mandate") on behalf of their party.

But this time, candidates from the Respublika party exercised their right to decline the mandates at an incredible rate.

Further analysis will be posted soon, but for now, here is the data which was compiled from Resublika's published election-day party listand the final list of sworn MPs issued by the Central Election Committee (CEC).

Party List #, Name, Ethnicity, Mandate Decision

1. Babanov, Omurbek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#1
2. Alimbekov, Nurbek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#2
3. Pirmatov, Ishaq - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#3
4. Sultanbekova, Cholpon - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#4
5. Isaev, Kanatbek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#5
6. Torobaev, Bakyt - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#6
7. Sulaimanov, Altynbek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#7
8. Zavgorodnyaya, Alevtina - Russian - DECLINED
9. Moldobaev, Askhat - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
10. Baatyrbekov, Almazbek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#8
11. Esenamanov, Zamirbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
12. Aknazarova, Rosa - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#9
13. Boko, Kenjebek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#10
14. Aripov, Nazarali - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#11
15. Turuskulov, Jyrgalbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
16. Djumaliev, Elmira - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#12
17. Obdunov, Elmurat - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#13
18. Kadyrkulov, Iskender - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
19. Osmonov, Malik - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#14
20. Amanbaeva, Urulkan - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#15
21. Arym, Kubat - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
22. Aitmatov, Kushtarbek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#16
23. Shaynazarov, Tynchtyk - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#17
24. Omurbekova, Altynai - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#18
25. Andash, Turatbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
26. Ismailov, Ulanbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
27. Nizovskii, Yuri - Russian - DECLINED
28. Shayymkulova, Ainura - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
29. Jolbolduev, Pamirbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
30. Bakirov, Mirlan - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#19
31. Oskonbaev, Beyshenbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
32. Alimzhanova, Damir - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
33. Asylbek, uulu Damirbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
34. Duyshenbiev, Nursultan - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
35. Murashev, Nurbek - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#20
36. Dzhumabekova, Akylsayra - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
37. Bekmatov, Abdyjapar - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#21
38. Zakirov, Asylbek - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
39. Sabirov, Maksat - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#22
40. Sagynbaeva, Gulifa - Kyrgyz - DECLINED
41. Rezhavaliev, Abdulatipov - Kyrgyz - Accepted, MP#23

What Mystery? US Probe reveals Bribery, Corruption, Incompetence... and No Ethics Violations?

by Ryan Weber

A new report from the US Congress highlights Pentagon malpractice in its fuel supply contracting in Kyrgyzstan. As the details of the report filter out, clear repurcussions are ahead for the companies involved, the US Afghan war effort, and the future of US-Kyrgyz relations. What remains obscure is how US government contracting could be conducted to such poor standards for so long, and how the new report justifies its assertion that corruption - in the form of bribes and other kick-backs to former Kyrgyz regimes - was not part of the problem.

Background

On December 21, the US House of Representatives Oversight Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs issued its final report on an 8-month investigation into US fuel supply contacts for the Manas Transit Center in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Situated on the grounds of the country's main international airport, within line-of-sight of commercial travelers, Manas ferries troops and supplies to Afghanistan as part of the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) .

When it was originally leased in December 2001, the US offered an aid package to the Kyrgyz government of Aksar Akayev totaling just over $2 million, a large portion of which went directly to Akayev's son, Aydar. Since then, two governments have fallen - Akayev's, and his 'revolutionary' successor Kurmanbek Bakiev - but Manas remains, first with an increase to $17 million annual rent in 2005, and now with a $63 million annual rent established in summer 2009. (See expert Alex Cooley's "Manas Matters" article for the above figures)

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Skin & Bones: The Structure of the new Kyrgyz Parliament

by Ryan Weber

"It's fun to write about an ACTUAL Kyrgyz government instead of a hypothetical one."
-Jax Jacobsen, reporter for Central Asia Newswire, in a tweet on December 20th, 2010

With the December 17 announcement of a successful majority coalition agreement, the Kyrgyz Jogorku Kenesh parliament can finally get to the business of governing the Republic after more than 2 months of political stalemate. Following the results of the October 10 elections, 5 parties entered the 120-seat parliament, all far short of the 60 seats necessary to appoint a Prime Minister and other top positions. Ata-Jurt, the largest party, controlled just 28 seats, while Ata-Meken was the smallest with 18.

The successful coalition - even more impressive following the instantaneous collapse of the first such effort led by the Social Democrats (SDPK) - was undertaken by the Respublika party, and included 'pro-grovernment' SDPK as well as the nationalist-tinged Ata-Jurt.

Ata-Meken and Ar-Namys went into the opposition, but are unlikely to caucasus given their radically different positions on domestic and foreign policy. The same could be said of the relationship between SDPK and Ata-Jurt, though the coalition agreement suggests they may have found ways to compromise.

In rapid succession, the new coalition was able to fulfill its mandate by electing the new government's top leadership. Almazbek Atambaev of SDPK becomes Prime Minister (92 votes), Omurbek Babanov of Respublika becomes Deputy Prime Minister (88 votes), and Akhmat Khelidbekov of Ata-Jurt becomes Speaker of Parliament (101 votes).

All three positions are newly-empowered by the 2010 Kyrgyz Constitution, which elevates Parliamentary executives over the Kyrgyz President for the first time in the country's 20 years of independence.

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Putting on a Show: Friends, Enemies & 'Frenemies' in Kyrgyz Politics

December 20, 2010, Bishkek – 24.kg News Agency
written by Asel Otorbayeva
style edit by Ryan Weber

Once again, Kyrgyz politicians place the importance of assigning government positions over actual governing.


Old Political Enemies

In its second attempt, the Kyrgyz parliament finally succeeded in electing a speaker. Their choice was the leader of the party [Ata-Jurt] which previously called for the return of ousted President Bakiev [actually, a rumor], and is comprised of many former allies to the fallen President.

Opponents [of Ata-Jurt] were highly critical of its intentions in the run-up to Parliamentary elections in October, charging it with a variety of "sins." Some even suggested members of Ata-Jurt helped instigate the June riots in Osh the ignited ethnic tension [and in several ways increased Ata-Jurts Nationalist rhetoric going into the election]. But the accusations against Ata-Jurt were never proven, and the other parties dropped attempts to link Ata-Jurt with the violence. Being veteran politicians, rather than defend themselves, Ata-Jurt enlisted [Kyrgyz] victims of the June events to protect their reputation.

Relatives of those killed during the April coup that removed Bakiev responded passionately to the former Bakiev administrators, [throwing eggs and] attempting to block their admittance to the new parliament. They demanded that such politicians never participate in government again, but the other ["pro-government"] parties did nothing to block their participation [such as passing a controversial Lustration law]. After a while, the general public acquiesced. [Respublika] party - as if it had forgotten the public distaste for Ata-Jurt - instructed the Social Democrat party (SDPK) to "make friends" with Ata-Jurt. They explained that economic concerns must trump personal animosity.

Now Almazbek Atambayev, SDPK leader and [recently-elected] Prime Minister must find a way to work with Akhmatbek Kelidbekov - the new Speaker of Parliament from Ata-Jurt. Whether they want to or not, their cooperation is vital for any progress [in Kyrgyzstan].

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Take Two: Kyrgyzstan Finally Has New Government

Newly-elected Kyrgyz Prime Minister Almazbek Atambaev (at center) joined by Omurbek Babanov (sans tie) and other members of the successful majority coalition that finally gave Kyrgyzstan a functional government on December 17. (photo credit S. Dosalieva, AKI Press)

Repost from Eurasianet

December 17, 2010 - 2:24pm, by David Trilling

Three of Kyrgyzstan’s quarreling parties have finally succeeded – after two months and one failed attempt – to form a government. The partnership may seem an unlikely one, but it unifies the country’s fractious north and southand all hopes are on this group to shepherd the country safely into a new year without political instability and violence.

Parliament convened on December 17 to approve the coalition proposed by Respublika leader Omurbek Babanov. Provisional President Roza Otunbayeva chose Babanov to lead the process on December 4, after the first attempt by her Social Democratic Party’s (SDPK) Almazbek Atambayev, fell through.

This coalition looks much like the first, botched one, with a stark exception. In place of the pro-Otunbayeva Ata-Meken party, it includes the nationalist Ata-Jurt party, whose Myktybek Abdyldayev will take the speaker position; Atambayev has assumed the premiership. Together with Respublika, the coalition holds 77 of the legislature’s 120 seats, a comfortable majority.

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Shadow of the Shah: How US policy in Central Asia raises the specter of 1979, and why US diplomats may be making the same mistakes

by Ryan Weber

Two recent articles by non-regional experts have shed an interesting light on US policy in Central Asia. In reading history, as well as a few Wikileaks, they examine what precedents US diplomats may be following as they brazenly cooperate with corrupt regimes. Rather than revealing any new information, what they show is how closely the US continues to follow old patterns - even those with disastrous outcomes. When short-term objectives conflict with long-term ideals like 'freedom' and 'democracy', it is the latter that lose ground. This is not only a problem for ideological purity - a luxury no 'superpower' can afford - but puts more practical long-term needs like regional stability and influence in jeopardy.

For this reason, US willingness to prioritize transit access and basing agreements over progress in human rights and political freedom among Central Asian states serves as a dangerous choice for US policymakers - and they should know better.

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Who Will Become Author of Kyrgyz Political Default?

Reposted from News Agency 24.kg

Bishkek - December 14, 2010 (0913 hrs)
written by Asel Otorbayeva
style edit by Ryan Weber

In the throes of giving birth to a parliamentary majority coalition, Kyrgyzstan may suffer a second miscarriage. The reason is obvious - excessive greed [by party leaders] for key positions in the future parliament.


Which Prime Minister is Best?

The main battle area among the five parties appears to be for the top spot [in the restructured Kyrgyz] government. Leaders of Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) and Ar-Namys party both want to become Prime Minister. For better or worse, neither are strangers to the political arena - each possessing ample experience as well as political baggage. And neither leader, Almazbek Atambayev of SDPK or Felix Kulov of Ar-Namys, show any sign of willingly stepping aside.

The Respublika party was chosen for the second mandate to form a majority coalition, and its leader, Omurbek Babanov, now faces one of the most difficult challenges of his career. Much younger than the other party leaders, and with less time in politics, he is finding it difficult to compete. His most persuasive arguments are unable to overcome the [entrenched] SDPK or the "iron shield" of Ar-Namys. It is no secret that ambitions for the Prime Minister position are entwined with hopes for the 2011 Presidential election. SDPK and Ar-Namys both aspire to the presidency, and controlling the Prime Minister may be a necessary 'trump card' for that effort.

Speaker’s Throne as Alternative

[Realizing that the new Kyrgyz Constitution dramatically increases the power of parliament, the position of Speaker of Parliament has become much more valuable. Now, not only the leader of the Ata-Meken party, [Omurbek Tekebaev] aspires to the post [he once held], but also members of Respublika, Ar-Namys, and Ata-Zhurt's co-chairman, Akhmatbek Kelidbekov.

According to the Constitution, which Tekebaev authored, tremendous authority resides in the hands of the Speaker. Deputies of the fifth convocation - the current parliament - seem unaware of the trap inherent in Tekebaev's government structure. He "planted a bomb with a clock mechanism continuously ticking like a reminder: the Prime Minister and the Speaker shall, as Siamese twins, breathe, sleep and most importantly - work in unison. Otherwise - [say] goodbye to the coalition, and hello [to the] dissolution of parliament!"

Assuming Felix Kulov steps aside, and his sworn [enemy] Atambaev becomes Prime Minister. How well can Atambaev work with [Speaker] Kelidbekov? Will this arrangement have a [viable] future? Of course not. And what about another combination - Speaker Kulov and Prime Minister Atambaev?

Whatever the experts say about the necessity or political wisdom of regional balance [i.e. the inclusion of Ata-Jurt as a "Southern" party along with the other, predominantly "Northern" factions] to the long-term stability of state, most of the existing coalitions are [destined to be] short-lived.

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Waiting for Parliament and a Kyrgyz Santa Claus

by Ryan Weber

For those of us anxiously waiting to see what sort of governing coalition will emerge from the Kyrgyz parliamentary negotiations, it's beginning to feel more and more like we may be waiting for a 'Godot' - the fictional character in Samuel Beckett's drama who, (in)famously, never arrives. Or perhaps, with the December 24 deadline for the formation of the next parliamentary coalition, it's up to the equally-fictional Santa Claus to finally bring resolution to the Kyrgyz political situation.

After requiring the full 15 working day period allowed by the constitution, the SDPK-Respublika-AtaMeken coalition failed to elect Omurbek Tekebaev as Speaker of Parliament on December 2. Since the coalition agreement was based on the awarding of the Speaker position to Tekebaev, as well as the Prime Ministership to SDPK leader Almazbek Atambaev, and Deputy PM to Respublika's Omurbek Babanov, the coalition couldn't enforce its contract, and thus dissolved. With 67 nominal coalition members in the 120-seat legislature, the surprising defeat with just 58 votes for Tekebaev demonstrated the practical, as well as theoretical, shortcomings of the agreement. Just days after signing a pact of solidarity, coalition members voted against their own coalition.

On December 3, an embarrassed Atambaev asked Kyrgyz President Roza Otunbayeva to select another party to form the coalition. Originally, Otunbayeva said Ata-Meken, as the other "pro-government" party, would be tasked with the duty if SDPK failed. Instead, whether because Tekebaev declined the opportunity, or Otunbayeva reacted to his apparent unpopularity, Omurbek Babanov and Respublika were given the charge along with a new deadline - December 24.

With the race to form a coalition once again wide open - with rumors that perhaps 4, or even all 5 political parties will join together - the possible make up of the ruling Kyrgyz government remains an item of intense, if largely uninformed, speculation.

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The "Free" Press: Trends in US Government Funding of Media Development Abroad

by Ryan Weber

A new study released December 7 by The Center for International Media Assistance (CIMA) examines trends in US government funding of foreign media development projects from 2007 to 2010. Africa received continued increases over the period, but the highest expenditures were 'South and Central Asia,' mostly concentrated in Afghanistan. Europe, the Caucasus, East Asia, the Middle East and Latin America all experienced gradual reductions in funding after a world-wide spike in media development in 2008.

The report, "U.S. Government Funding for Media Development: A Special Report to the Center for International Media Assistance" (full text) was written by Laura Motta, and commissioned by the National Endowment for Democracy. It considers projects tagged as either "Media Development" or "Freedom of Information" programs, with some examples including local journalist training, improved internet access, and news/communications programs for disabled, or hard to reach populations.

Specifically, the CIMA report looks at funding by two US government agencies - the Department of State and the US Agency for International Development (USAID). From State, these projects are usually carried out by the Democracy, Human Rights and Labor program (DRL), the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) or the Bureau or Europe and Euarsian Affairs. The USAID departments include Democracy & Governance (DG) and the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI), which work in post- and on-going conflict areas.

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Panel Suggests Media, Representation, Corruption all Obstacles to Peace & Democracy in Kyrgyzstan

by Ryan Weber

On the evening of December 6, the Elliott School at George Washington University in Washington, DC hosted a panel discussion titled, "Post-election Developments in Kyrgyzstan: The Tension Between Democracy Promotion and Conflict Mitigation."

The event was moderated by Dr. Sean Roberts, director of the International Development Studies Program at George Washington University, and author of the Roberts Report on Central Asia and Kazakhstan. Panelists included Alisha Khamidov, lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies at the Johns Hopkins University; Jeff Goldstein, senior policy analyst of Eurasia at the Open Society Institute; and Sam Patten, senior program manager of Eurasia at Freedom House.

The event drew a respectable crowd of students and DC-based Eurasia analysts, and focused on the relationship between democracy promotion and (ethnic) conflict resolution in post-Bakiev Kyrgyzstan. Especially at issue was the tension between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks in the country's Southern regions and how certain political factions used nationalist rhetoric to exploit and encourage this tension for their own gain leading up to the October 10 parliamentary election.

Each offered their perspective on the nature of the widespread June violence that shook Osh and lead to the death of hundreds and the flight of tens of thousands of ethnic Uzbeks to the nearby border with Uzbekistan. Each speaker had been to Kyrgyzstan within the past 6 months, during the Osh violence, October elections, or both.

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If at First you Don't Succeed: Kyrgyz Parliament Takes Another Shot at Forming Majority Coalition

by Ryan Weber

The march of Kyrgyzstan's fledgling parliamentary democracy took another hit on December 4 as the recently-announced "Coalition for the Sake of Stability" turned out to be a "Stillborn Coalition" as it failed to achieve its first test of forming a parliamentary government.

Despite its 3 parties controlling 67 delegates - a majority of the 120-seat Jogorku Kenesh parliament - it was only able to muster 58 votes in support of its candidate for Speaker of Parliament. That candidate, the leader of the Ata-Meken party and a former Speaker of Parliament, Omurbek Tekebaev (pictured below right), failed to receive the necessary 61 votes because 9 coalition MPs (identities unknown) didn't vote for him.

Tekebaev has been out of government positions since 2006, but remains a major player in Kyrgyz politics as a former opposition activist, interim deputy chaiman, and architect of the new Kyrgyz Constitution adopted in July. With the possible exception of President Roza Otunbayeva, he is the individual most responsible for adoption of the strong parliamentary system under which Kyrgyzstan is struggling to operate.

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Kyrgyzstan’s Stillborn Coalition

Originally published on Eurasianet.org

December 3, 2010 - 1:18am, by David Trilling

Inhale deeply, again. Three days after we breathed a collective sigh of relief that Kyrgyzstan’s squabbling politicians had somehow, after six weeks of backroom dealing, agreed to form a governing coalition, that “coalition” did not gather enough votes – from its own members – to assume power.

During a late, secret vote on December 2, the designated speaker, Omurbek Tekebayev, only received 58 votes, AKIpress reports. Sixty-one of the parliament’s 120 are required. The coalition-that-shall-not-be – comprising Tekebayev’s own Ata-Meken, the Social Democratic Party, and Respublika – holds 67 seats, highlighting dissension in the ranks.

The parliament has gone into crisis mode and Social Democrat leader Almazbek Atambayev, the would-be prime minister, says he intends to ask provisional President Roza Otunbayeva to pass the mandate for forming a coalition onto another party.

Ironically, the president has already said the next faction to try would be Tekebayev’s. Unless she changes her mind (or Tekebayev agrees to a post lower than speaker – unlikely), the next round of coalition building will be hard going.

As we reported last month, Tekebayev, who has held the post of speaker previously, is a dangerous partner:

Many say Tekebayev – who is deeply distrusted in Moscow and described disparagingly as “pro-Western” – is too much of a liability for either coalition since good relations with Russia are vital to Kyrgyzstan’s economic health. Tekebayev, author of the new constitution approved in June, has been described as a tragic political figure: He has kept a low profile since the October 10 elections, when, after the Russian media attacked him during the campaign, his party – a frontrunner in the polls – barely squeaked into parliament.

If Tekebayev fails, as many expect, according to the constitution the president will appoint a coalition herself. If that fails: more elections and more political uncertainty for Kyrgyzstan.

Cutting the Deck: Expert Opinions Divided on Prospects for New Coalition in Kyrgyz Parliament

by Ryan Weber

On November 29, three parties in the Kyrgyz parliament announced that they had successfully carried out President Roza Otunbayeva's directive to form a coalition of more than 60 seats. the Social Democrats (SDPK), Respublika, and Ata-Meken (Fatherland) will lead the legislature and nominate officers for the country's first ruling multi-party parliament, the 120-seat Jogorku Kenesh.

Since the announcement, various experts and analysts (including this one) have weighed in on the prospects for the coalition amidst an abysmal economy and the onset of Kyrgystan's harsh winter and regular power shortages. With Hilary Clinton's first visit to Bishkek scheduled for tomorrow (Dec 2), it's worth considering two well-respected, and entirely contrary, opinions from Bishkek-based experts.

Mars Sariev, a veteran political analyst based in Bishkek, told New Agency 24.kg that the SDPK-Respublika-AtaMeken coalition was the "best option for further development of Kyrgyzstan."

"The country is on the verge of economic and political collapse, and the ruling coalition will need team spirit. They won’t be able to cooperate without it. If we consider that each of the leaders will get their previous positions – Omurbek Tekebayev will become a Speaker, Almazbek Atambayev - Prime Minister and Omurbek Babanov - Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, recent incidents – arrest of an extremist group in the city of Osh and the explosion in the capital - had a sobering effect on the party leaders. All the incidents that broke out in the country after the April events and last outbreaks – the awareness that the state could collapse overnight and they will lose everything - joined the former oppositionists. The coalition, which could not be formed for a long time, had been established overnight. This means the coalition has a potential and contradictions between them have been minimized."

On the other hand, Elmira Nogoybaeva, head of the Bishkek-based think tank Polis Asia, told 24.kg that the resulting coalition is worrisome because it "doesn't represent interests of the people of Kyrgyzstan to the full extent."

“It turns out that interests of the south won’t be taken into account in the parliament [because the three parties in the coalition are all seen as Northerners]. I think it were more challenging to create the coalition with participation of two northern and one southern party – Ata-Zhurt. Yes, many understand these parties are ideologic and political rivals but the level of the compromise would be higher… Such coalition would be more stable. Unfortunately, the artificial regionalism intensified after [the] April events. This is dangerous. I think politicians must follow regional balance when they will distribute the portfolios."

The caveat virtually every Kyrgyz expert has used is that whatever the new coalition does, or does not, accomplish, it is operating in a situation in which "the deck is stacked against it," and "the stakes are high" for its potential democratic future.

Gambling metaphors aside, the prospects for the "experiment in parliamentary democracy" are uncertain, as is the degree to which the success or failure of the new coalition will determine the greater course of the country's governance. While it is interesting, and occasionally informative, for experts to speculate on such trajectories, the best analysis always comes in hindsight.

Fortune telling is best left to the demonstrably clairvoyant.

And tarot cards.

Kyrgyz Parliament Sets Majority Coalition

The Kyrgyz Parliament in their first (and so far, only) session on November 10. With the formation of a majority coalition on November 30, parliament is expected to begin regular meetings soon. (photo credit AFP)

by Ryan Weber

As reported earlier (Nov. 24 and Nov. 29), the Kyrgyz Parliament has been deadlocked since its opening session on November 10 because no single party, or even group of two parties, controls enough seats to form a majority of the 120-member Jogorku Kenesh Parliament and name a Prime Minister, as required by the Constitution.

On November 30, just 2 days before the deadline set by President Roza Otunbayeva, that deadlock has finally been broken. After weeks of intense negotiations, including meetings with the rival Ata-Jurt and Ar-Namys parties, the SDPK party revealed an agreement with longtime fellow "pro-government" socialist party Ata-Meken and the new business-oriented party, Respublika.

This was the exact coalition that analysts expected to emerge following the October 10 elections, but breakdowns in the negotiations, accusations of international bias, and stubborn party leaders caused the "obvious" coalition to stall time and time again. Just November 29, Farid Niyazov, spokesman for the SDPK party, said that the two most likely coalition outcomes would include the Ata-Jurt party, which controls 28 seats in parliament, the most of any party.

But on November 30, an agreement was signed - without Ata-Jurt.

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