Waiting for Parliament and a Kyrgyz Santa Claus

by Ryan Weber

For those of us anxiously waiting to see what sort of governing coalition will emerge from the Kyrgyz parliamentary negotiations, it's beginning to feel more and more like we may be waiting for a 'Godot' - the fictional character in Samuel Beckett's drama who, (in)famously, never arrives. Or perhaps, with the December 24 deadline for the formation of the next parliamentary coalition, it's up to the equally-fictional Santa Claus to finally bring resolution to the Kyrgyz political situation.

After requiring the full 15 working day period allowed by the constitution, the SDPK-Respublika-AtaMeken coalition failed to elect Omurbek Tekebaev as Speaker of Parliament on December 2. Since the coalition agreement was based on the awarding of the Speaker position to Tekebaev, as well as the Prime Ministership to SDPK leader Almazbek Atambaev, and Deputy PM to Respublika's Omurbek Babanov, the coalition couldn't enforce its contract, and thus dissolved. With 67 nominal coalition members in the 120-seat legislature, the surprising defeat with just 58 votes for Tekebaev demonstrated the practical, as well as theoretical, shortcomings of the agreement. Just days after signing a pact of solidarity, coalition members voted against their own coalition.

On December 3, an embarrassed Atambaev asked Kyrgyz President Roza Otunbayeva to select another party to form the coalition. Originally, Otunbayeva said Ata-Meken, as the other "pro-government" party, would be tasked with the duty if SDPK failed. Instead, whether because Tekebaev declined the opportunity, or Otunbayeva reacted to his apparent unpopularity, Omurbek Babanov and Respublika were given the charge along with a new deadline - December 24.

With the race to form a coalition once again wide open - with rumors that perhaps 4, or even all 5 political parties will join together - the possible make up of the ruling Kyrgyz government remains an item of intense, if largely uninformed, speculation.

As a party without the "revolutionary" or "old regime" reputation of the other 4, Respublika seems well-chosen to instigate compromise. According to Chairman of the Respublika executive committee, Dosaly Esenaliyev, his party is meeting with leaders and other MPs from all 5 parties in pursuit of the best, most functional coalition. "[the] aim of Respublika is to form a long-term coalition. Coalition has to become the basis for [an] operational parliament and stable government," he told News Agency 24.kg on December 9.

And the other parties have responded vigorously so far. Major players like Felix Kulov of Ar-Namys and Akhmatbek Kelidbekov, co-chairman of Ata-Jurt, have expressed their willingness to be flexible in a Respublika-led coalition. Kelidbekov assured the other MPs that Ata-Jurt, the largest faction in parliament with 28 seats and the nominal 'winner' of the October 10 election, has no "insuperable contractions with any of the [other] factions." Instead, Kelidbekov claims to be looking ahead: "today the main task is to form a competent, professional government."

Kulov, the former Prime Minister and leader of pro-Russian Ar-Namys, has also been unusually cooperative after a recent history of being highly confrontational. On December 13, a member of his party, Akylbek Japarov, declared that Respublika's economic goals were in complete alignment with Ar-Namys, and only a few days earlier, Kulov himself said that Tekebaev, his long-time nemesis, "deserves" to be Speaker of Parliament, even though this may not be possible. He further asserted that Ar-Namys has no desire to hold the Speaker position, and would be content with either a lesser level of inclusion, or possibly heading the Cabinet. Like Khelidbekov, he stressed the need to stop haggling and start governing. "We have no right to quarrel with each other. We must begin working."

Atambaev and his SDPK party have been quiet since the December 2 vote, but are continuing to be a part of negotiations with Respublika, and are presumed to be part of the new coalition. In a strange reversal of their own, SDPK member Chynybay Tursunbek made clear that awarding the Prime Ministership to Atambaev was no longer necessary for SDPK cooperation. "Yes," he told 24.kg on December 9, "we would like to see our leader [Atambaev] as the Prime Minister, and we'll propose his candidacy. But if he won't become Prime Minister, for example, we will not rebel against this and will not be offended."

Also in consultations, but a decidedly weaker position, is Ata-Meken, the smallest party in parliament with 18 delegates (note: this doesn't separate them very much from the others. The largest faction, Ata-Jurt, has only 28 delegates). Ata-Meken's difficult position derives from the unpopularity among legislators of its leader, Tekebaev, who was largely responsible for delaying the first coalition talks, and almost singularly responsible for its failure.

Ata-Meken has been almost silent, and has expressed a willingness to be part of a multi-party coalition, or the sole member of the opposition. For their part, Ata-Meken's allies in SDPK have expressed an interest in a 4-party coalition excluding only Ar-Namys, but Ata-Meken has maintained its interest in making Tekebaev Speaker, a difficult place to start negotiations in the current political climate.

Negotiations continue, with less than 11 days remaining before the deadline. In a country with 86% Muslim population, Christmas eve is not usually an important occasion in Kyrgyzstan. But in the country once named "the Home of Santa Claus" as an attempt to drive tourism, Kyrgyzstan may very well deliver a Christmas surprise - or, conversely, another piece of coal in the collective stocking of Kyrgyz politics.