Reposted from News Agency 24.kg
Bishkek - December 14, 2010 (0913 hrs)written by Asel Otorbayeva
style edit by Ryan Weber
In the throes of giving birth to a parliamentary majority coalition, Kyrgyzstan may suffer a second miscarriage. The reason is obvious - excessive greed [by party leaders] for key positions in the future parliament.
Which Prime Minister is Best?
The main battle area among the five parties appears to be for the top spot [in the restructured Kyrgyz] government. Leaders of Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK) and Ar-Namys party both want to become Prime Minister. For better or worse, neither are strangers to the political arena - each possessing ample experience as well as political baggage. And neither leader, Almazbek Atambayev of SDPK or Felix Kulov of Ar-Namys, show any sign of willingly stepping aside.
The Respublika party was chosen for the second mandate to form a majority coalition, and its leader, Omurbek Babanov, now faces one of the most difficult challenges of his career. Much younger than the other party leaders, and with less time in politics, he is finding it difficult to compete. His most persuasive arguments are unable to overcome the [entrenched] SDPK or the "iron shield" of Ar-Namys. It is no secret that ambitions for the Prime Minister position are entwined with hopes for the 2011 Presidential election. SDPK and Ar-Namys both aspire to the presidency, and controlling the Prime Minister may be a necessary 'trump card' for that effort.
Speaker’s Throne as Alternative
[Realizing that the new Kyrgyz Constitution dramatically increases the power of parliament, the position of Speaker of Parliament has become much more valuable. Now, not only the leader of the Ata-Meken party, [Omurbek Tekebaev] aspires to the post [he once held], but also members of Respublika, Ar-Namys, and Ata-Zhurt's co-chairman, Akhmatbek Kelidbekov.
According to the Constitution, which Tekebaev authored, tremendous authority resides in the hands of the Speaker. Deputies of the fifth convocation - the current parliament - seem unaware of the trap inherent in Tekebaev's government structure. He "planted a bomb with a clock mechanism continuously ticking like a reminder: the Prime Minister and the Speaker shall, as Siamese twins, breathe, sleep and most importantly - work in unison. Otherwise - [say] goodbye to the coalition, and hello [to the] dissolution of parliament!"
Assuming Felix Kulov steps aside, and his sworn [enemy] Atambaev becomes Prime Minister. How well can Atambaev work with [Speaker] Kelidbekov? Will this arrangement have a [viable] future? Of course not. And what about another combination - Speaker Kulov and Prime Minister Atambaev?
Whatever the experts say about the necessity or political wisdom of regional balance [i.e. the inclusion of Ata-Jurt as a "Southern" party along with the other, predominantly "Northern" factions] to the long-term stability of state, most of the existing coalitions are [destined to be] short-lived.
Monologues
Given what various "popular patriotic" members of parliament have had to say on the matter, it is difficult to imagine a lasting compromise:
“The Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan should take the prime minister’s post.”
-Chynybay Tursunbek, SDPK MP (December 6, 2010).
“We see no other candidate for the post of the Speaker but Omurbek Tekebayev.”
“We see no other candidate for the post of the Speaker but Omurbek Tekebayev.”
-Zhoomart Saparbayev, Ata-Meken MP (December 7).
“We are ready to abandon all other portfolios, only Omurbek Tekebayev to lead the parliament.”
“We are ready to abandon all other portfolios, only Omurbek Tekebayev to lead the parliament.”
-Karganbek Samakov, Ata-Meken (December 13).
“This is our principle position and we are not going to give up. Omurbek Tekebayev and Ata-Meken did a lot for the country. We are not asking for economic bloc or government positions. We do not care about it. We must continue the ongoing reforms and that is all.”
“This is our principle position and we are not going to give up. Omurbek Tekebayev and Ata-Meken did a lot for the country. We are not asking for economic bloc or government positions. We do not care about it. We must continue the ongoing reforms and that is all.”
-Ravshan Jeenbekov, Ata-Meken MP (December 9).
“I believe we need two heads of the parliament and [two of] the government... Nothing is impossible in Kyrgyzstan.”
-Akylbek Japarov, Ar-Namys (December 13)
Non-Astrologic Forecast for 2011 and Beyond?
Kyrgyzstan is going to celebrate the New Year on the brink of the abyss. GDP in the country fell by 0.6% for 10 months in 2010 compared to the same period last year, and amounted to little more than 165 billion KGS (approximately U.S. $ 3.5 billion). Economic decline was primarily due to falling agricultural figures, down 2.6 percent. The consumer price index was 13.1% (2009 was just 5.9%). As of September 30, the national debt hit $ 2.6 billion. The debt now accounts for [an astounding] 62.2% of GDP. Unemployment rose by 64,900 and increased by 2.8% compared with the corresponding period in 2009.
With the continuing demonstration of personal “wants and needs” the prognosis made by Martha Brill Olcott, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sounds scary. She told reporters that “the success of [a] parliamentary form of government in Kyrgyzstan will be visible after 10 years.” In her opinion, a parliamentary form of government could be successfully implemented in Kyrgyzstan, [but will take time].
Kyrgyzstan is going to celebrate the New Year on the brink of the abyss. GDP in the country fell by 0.6% for 10 months in 2010 compared to the same period last year, and amounted to little more than 165 billion KGS (approximately U.S. $ 3.5 billion). Economic decline was primarily due to falling agricultural figures, down 2.6 percent. The consumer price index was 13.1% (2009 was just 5.9%). As of September 30, the national debt hit $ 2.6 billion. The debt now accounts for [an astounding] 62.2% of GDP. Unemployment rose by 64,900 and increased by 2.8% compared with the corresponding period in 2009.
With the continuing demonstration of personal “wants and needs” the prognosis made by Martha Brill Olcott, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sounds scary. She told reporters that “the success of [a] parliamentary form of government in Kyrgyzstan will be visible after 10 years.” In her opinion, a parliamentary form of government could be successfully implemented in Kyrgyzstan, [but will take time].
American optimism is hardly shared by the Kyrgyz people. They realize that political default is already knocking at our doors. Do the MPs, not realize this as well?
opinions expressed are solely those of the author, Asel Otorbayeva.
read the original text of this article at http://eng.24.kg/politic/2010/12/14/15334.html
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