Cutting the Deck: Expert Opinions Divided on Prospects for New Coalition in Kyrgyz Parliament

by Ryan Weber

On November 29, three parties in the Kyrgyz parliament announced that they had successfully carried out President Roza Otunbayeva's directive to form a coalition of more than 60 seats. the Social Democrats (SDPK), Respublika, and Ata-Meken (Fatherland) will lead the legislature and nominate officers for the country's first ruling multi-party parliament, the 120-seat Jogorku Kenesh.

Since the announcement, various experts and analysts (including this one) have weighed in on the prospects for the coalition amidst an abysmal economy and the onset of Kyrgystan's harsh winter and regular power shortages. With Hilary Clinton's first visit to Bishkek scheduled for tomorrow (Dec 2), it's worth considering two well-respected, and entirely contrary, opinions from Bishkek-based experts.

Mars Sariev, a veteran political analyst based in Bishkek, told New Agency 24.kg that the SDPK-Respublika-AtaMeken coalition was the "best option for further development of Kyrgyzstan."

"The country is on the verge of economic and political collapse, and the ruling coalition will need team spirit. They won’t be able to cooperate without it. If we consider that each of the leaders will get their previous positions – Omurbek Tekebayev will become a Speaker, Almazbek Atambayev - Prime Minister and Omurbek Babanov - Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, recent incidents – arrest of an extremist group in the city of Osh and the explosion in the capital - had a sobering effect on the party leaders. All the incidents that broke out in the country after the April events and last outbreaks – the awareness that the state could collapse overnight and they will lose everything - joined the former oppositionists. The coalition, which could not be formed for a long time, had been established overnight. This means the coalition has a potential and contradictions between them have been minimized."

On the other hand, Elmira Nogoybaeva, head of the Bishkek-based think tank Polis Asia, told 24.kg that the resulting coalition is worrisome because it "doesn't represent interests of the people of Kyrgyzstan to the full extent."

“It turns out that interests of the south won’t be taken into account in the parliament [because the three parties in the coalition are all seen as Northerners]. I think it were more challenging to create the coalition with participation of two northern and one southern party – Ata-Zhurt. Yes, many understand these parties are ideologic and political rivals but the level of the compromise would be higher… Such coalition would be more stable. Unfortunately, the artificial regionalism intensified after [the] April events. This is dangerous. I think politicians must follow regional balance when they will distribute the portfolios."

The caveat virtually every Kyrgyz expert has used is that whatever the new coalition does, or does not, accomplish, it is operating in a situation in which "the deck is stacked against it," and "the stakes are high" for its potential democratic future.

Gambling metaphors aside, the prospects for the "experiment in parliamentary democracy" are uncertain, as is the degree to which the success or failure of the new coalition will determine the greater course of the country's governance. While it is interesting, and occasionally informative, for experts to speculate on such trajectories, the best analysis always comes in hindsight.

Fortune telling is best left to the demonstrably clairvoyant.

And tarot cards.