If at First you Don't Succeed: Kyrgyz Parliament Takes Another Shot at Forming Majority Coalition

by Ryan Weber

The march of Kyrgyzstan's fledgling parliamentary democracy took another hit on December 4 as the recently-announced "Coalition for the Sake of Stability" turned out to be a "Stillborn Coalition" as it failed to achieve its first test of forming a parliamentary government.

Despite its 3 parties controlling 67 delegates - a majority of the 120-seat Jogorku Kenesh parliament - it was only able to muster 58 votes in support of its candidate for Speaker of Parliament. That candidate, the leader of the Ata-Meken party and a former Speaker of Parliament, Omurbek Tekebaev (pictured below right), failed to receive the necessary 61 votes because 9 coalition MPs (identities unknown) didn't vote for him.

Tekebaev has been out of government positions since 2006, but remains a major player in Kyrgyz politics as a former opposition activist, interim deputy chaiman, and architect of the new Kyrgyz Constitution adopted in July. With the possible exception of President Roza Otunbayeva, he is the individual most responsible for adoption of the strong parliamentary system under which Kyrgyzstan is struggling to operate.

But Tekebaev's long political career, mostly as an outside agitator, has also generated significant animosity from his former rivals - most famously an attempted framing for heroin possession while he was traveling in Poland. As long-time leader of Ata-Meken, he has taken stances that are widely-regarded as Pro-Western (or more accurately, anti-Russian) and is viewed as a "Northerner" in the dominant political identity of the small mountainous nation. An additional concern is a video released in 2008 showing a man who resembles Tekebaev having a sexual encounter with a woman who is not his wife. That subject and its reflection on Tekebaev's 'morality' was why Jldyzkan Jolodosheva, of Ata-Jurt, voted against his candidacy.

Accounting for the 9 missing coalition votes is also difficult in the Kyrgyz closed parliament vote. Respublika party, which controls 23 delegates, announced that two of its members voted against Tekebaev, but they did not identify those members by name. If true, that leaves 7 delegates from the Social Democrats (SDPK) or even Tekebaev's own Ata-Meken party, who did not support the coalition's choice.

Another interesting note is that Tekebaev didn't run against any other candidate. Ata-Jurt proposed a candiddate, and Ar-Namys considered doing so as well, but both parties withdrew their delegates before the vote. As a result, it was a straight-up 'For' or 'Against' call. Tekebaev received 58 votes For him, and 59 votes Against. Three delegates - the exact number of supporters Tekebaev needed to win - abstained from the vote altogether. This abstention suggests they were unlikely to support Tekebaev regardless, but it does show just how close the coalition, lead by SDPK leader Almazbek Atambaev in conjunction with the Respublika party, came to successfully forming a government.

The failure has been ridiculed by critics as proof that Kyrgyzstan cannot function as a parliamentary democracy. Shayirbek Mamatomktorov, who predicted the coalition would be unable to resolve the many challenges facing Kyrgyzstan, practically gloated following the vote.

"In Kyrgyzstan, [my] parliamentary crisis forecast came true much earlier than predicted," he told New Agency 24.kg.

But for those rooting for a bright democratic future for Kyrgyzstan, it was also a difficult blow. Atambaev himself seemed shaken, admitting his failure in remarks to President Otunbayeva who selected SDPK to form the coalition, and asking that she nominate a different party to form the government.

"If we don’t consolidate we will lose Kyrgyzstan. If I made mistakes, please excuse me. I hope Roza Otunbayeva will choose a worthy faction. And I hope the government will be formed as soon as possible" (Atambaev, 3 December 2010)

Originally, Otunbayeva said that if SDPK failed to form a coalition, that responsibility would fall to the other pro-government party, Ata-Meken. Not surprisingly, this is no longer the case. Not only was Tekebaev the long hold-out in the first round of coalition talks, almost convincing Atambaev to join forces with rival Ata-Jurt party, he was the singular cause of its failure. That hasn't stopped Tekebaev from shrugging off his defeat as the normal contestation of parliamentary politics.

“In Kyrgyzstan, split of parliamentary coalition, created by Almazbek Atambaev, was predestined by the results of parliamentary elections... there are several small political alliances and it makes internal contradictions... Faction leaders are not brothers. Brothers do not bury each other." (Tekebaev, 6 December 2010)

He also emphasized that this setback did not spell the end of the parliamentary system he helped engineer:

“After self-neutralization of coalition, created by Almazbek Atambaev, many experts tell about failure of parliamentary form of government. But it is wrong. The scheme was polished and works smoothly. " (same)

Reversing her earlier course, President Otunbayeva has now named Respublika as the lead party to form a new coalition, and set a deadline of December 24. Respublika possesses a unique position in the current Kyrgyz political spectrum, being neither a former opposition-turned-pro-government party like Ata-Meken and SDPK, nor a repository of former regime elites, as Ar-Namys, and especially Ata-Jurt, are seen. Its chosen ethos focuses on business development, economic growth, and private industry; concepts which are not at the heart of the other 4 parties, but to which they are amenable. As political scientist Mars Sariev points out, Respublika also has members from both the country's geographic North and South, often a more politically relevant distinction than religion or ethnicity. Ata-Meken and SDPK are predominantly Northern parties, while Ata-Jurt is the uncontested party of the South.

Toward that end, Respublika leader Omurbek Babanov (at left) has announced that his party will seek to form a wide coalition, possibly including all 5 parties, and have started negotiations. If they fail, parliament will have one last chance to form a majority coalition - presumably within the same 15 working day period awarded to the other attempts. That places the ultimate deadline for the formation of a Kyrgyz government at January 14, 2011 (3 months and 4 days after the election).

If no coalition succeeds on the third attempt, according to the Kyrgyz Constitution the 5th convocation of Parliament will be dissolved, and new elections will be held. That's not something any of the 5 parties in power want to see, especially after they spent 3 months bickering over the formation of a government while their citizens endured the triple hardships of poverty, winter, and ethnic tensions.

What's next for the Kyrgyz Parliament remains anyone's guess, though the consensus among analysts and politicians (Ata-Jurt; Ar-Namys) seems to be a 4-party coalition, including Respublika, Ata-Jurt, SDPK and Ar-Namys. That would only leave Ata-Meken, and especially Tekebaev, in the opposition. With a mere 18 seats, the surprisingly unpopular Tekebaev would again be on the outside, a position he has said he would be comfortable holding.