A Look Inside the New Kyrgyz Parliament

PHOTO: A view inside the Kyrgyz Parliament during its first session on November 10, 2010.

by Ryan Weber

The 5th Supreme Council - Jogorku Kenesh - of the Kyrgyz Republic held its first meeting on November 10, but it faces many challenges, not the least of which will be defining the character of the country's first ruling Parliament given its unusual balance of power and presence of former opposition and pro-Bakiev politicians. Now that the elections have ended, the real work in Bishkek begins, and the international community gets its first look at the 120 MPs who will guide the Parliamentary Democracy under the newly-christened Constitution. Understanding the complexity of the coalition process, and the composition of individuals within parliament, is the first step in predicting the future trajectory of the Kyrgyz Republic.

From Votes to Government: Coalition is the Key Step

The exact results play out like a college political science classroom exercise. The winning party, Ata-Jurt, is a new political face for a collection of mostly old-hand politicians. It includes several officials from the administration of fallen President Bakiev and his Ak Jol party. Along with the recently-created pro-Russian Ar-Namys party, they call for the return of the Presidential system - effectively erasing the parliamentary "revolution" that removed Bakiev from power in April.

On the other side of the aisle are ironically-titled "pro-government" parties Social Democrats and Ata-Meken. Both have long pedigrees as "anti-government/ opposition" parties under the repressive Bakiev regime, and were instrumental in the formation of the post-Bakiev interim government and the drafting of the new Constitution, which made the President subordinate to the Parliament.

Somewhere in the middle - or perhaps, on a different scale altogether - is Respublika, a conglomeration of business leaders presumably willing to work with any political faction in pursuit of economic goals.

As the electoral votes were translated into parliamentary seats, the result was that no one party, nor any like-minded 2-party faction, could wield the 61-seat majority necessary to form a cabinet. Ata-Jurt, the nominal winners by popular vote, received 28 seats, but were reduced to a likely "opposition" when Respublika (23 seats) and SDPK (26 seats) announced a coalition. But without Ata-Meken, which reports suggest has been excluded for its overtly anti-Russian bias, and its 18 seats, this coalition falls 11 seats short of the majority. The likely counter-coalition of Ata-Jurt and Ar-Namys could muster 53 seats, 8 short of majority. Either way, the inclusion of Ata-Meken seems necessary for either to name a Prime Minister - a fact not lost on Ata-Meken leader and long-time Kyrgyz politico, Omurbek Tekebaev, in a fascinating interview he gave to News Agency 24.kg.

The most likely outcome at this point will be for President Roza Otunbayeva to appoint a ruling party, which she is empowered to do by the constitution, to form a coalition within 15 working days (that is, by November 27). If that party cannot build a coalition, Otunbayeva can appoint a second party to give it a try, and reports from RFE/RL suggest she will offer that hypothetical chance to the minority Ata-Meken delegation. If this also fails, the Parliament has one last chance to agree on a compromise cabinet, otherwise it will be dissolved and new elections will be called - an event that few are hoping for, but which would certainly strengthen the Ata-Jurt/Ar-Namys/Russian criticism of the Parliamentary method of governance.

Party Lists and Representation

In the first session, the CEC swore in the 120 new MPs, and in so doing released the final list of winning candidates. Because Kyrgyzstan uses a National Party List electoral system, citizens vote not for individuals, but for parties, each of which has its candidates "listed" numerically on the ballot. After the election, candidates in the top X number (where X is the number of seats awarded to that party based on their finish in the polls) join parliament, and the rest do not.

This allows for some "celebrity" candidates, such as Alene Ofoyo, the celebrated Kyrgyz-Congolese kickboxing champion who was added to the Respublika list in a bid to garner support from his fans. While Ofoyo's odds of taking up a seat in parliament, even in a landslide, where small, he could still have brought votes and improved the party's final vote share.

Likewise, the Kyrgyz Electoral Code (Article 72, #3) requires a 15% of each party's listed candidates to be ethnic minorities and 30% women, with a 3-position maximum gender gap as stipulated in the Code, and generally adhered to by the parties (see lists below)

Even after the election, there has been movement on the party lists. Some candidates gracefully decline their seat, allowing other candidates to move up the list and take their seat instead. A notable exception is Dinara Isaeva, a member of Ata-Jurt and the wife of former Bakiev-era Prime Minister, Daniyar Usinov. Isaeva has been asked by her party to step down from her #12 seat, ostensibly for not contributing significantly to their electoral success; she has refused. This so frustrated Ata-Jurt party leader Kamchybek Tashiev that, according to News Agency 24.kg he is boycotting parliament, including Wednesday's swearing in ceremony.

Following the November 10 inauguration (which several members were late to, or simply skipped), the Kyrgyz Central Election Commission (CEC) has released for the first time the complete list of deputies. Broken down by party, with partial background where available, it follows:

(women candidates denoted with * for clarity of adherence to gender gap rule)

Ata-Jurt party:
1. ABDYLDAEV, Myktybek (former Minister of Internal Affairs)
2. TASHIEV, Kamchybek (former Minister of Emergency Situations)
3. KELIDBEKOV, Akhmatbek
4. IMANALIEVA, Elmira *
5. TIULEEV, Nariman (former Mayor of Bishkek)
6. KANGELDIEV, Azamat
7. DZHUMABEKOV, Dastanbek
8. DZHOLDOSHEV, Zhyldyzkan
9. KUDAIBERGENOV, Dzhanysh (former MP from Ak Jol party)
10. CHOLPONBAEV, Ulan
11. AIDAROV, Nurgazy
12. ISAEVA, Dinara * (former MP from Ak Jol party)
13. MOLDOBAEV, Narynbek (former MP from Ak Jol party)
14. SULTANOV, Marat (former Minister of Finance)
15. ZHAPAROV, Sadyr
16. ESENALIEVA, Symbat *
17. SULAIMANOV, Nurlan (former Minister of Transportation)
18. SURAKMATOV, Aziz
19. SHIN, Roman (former MP from PKK - Kyrgyz Communist Party)
20. MAZHITOVA, Sharaptakan *
21. ARAPBAEV, Azamat (former MP from Ak Jol party)
22. OSMONOV, Kurmanbek
23. DZHUNUSOV, Ibragim (former MP from Ak Jol party)
24. NARMATOVA, Nadira *
25. MAMYTOV, Talant
26. ABDIEV, Kurmantay (former Minister of Justice)
27. IMANALIEV, Zhusup
28. OSMONOVA Nurzat *

Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK):
1. ATAMBAEV, Almazbek (former Prime Minister, MP)
2. ISAKOV, Ismail (former Minister of Defense)
3. TURSUNBEKOV, Chynybai
4. KARAMUSHKINA, Irina *
5. ATADZHANOV, Sabir
6. ZHEENBEKOV, Asilbek
7. ALYMBEKOV, Zamirbek
8. ZHAMGYRCHIEVA, Gulnara *
9. ZHRMATOVA, Zhgemberda *
10. TERBISHALIEV, Daniyar
11. SAKEBAEV, Erkin
12. NIYAZALIEVA, Damira *
13. ASANOV, Kursan
14. SALYMBEKOV, Mamtbay (former member of Ak Jol)
15. SALIMOV, Tursuntay
16. SKRIPKINA, Galina *
17. DOMSHENKO, Oleg
18. ISAEV, Zhusupali
19. TUMANOV, Toktogul
20. IZMALKOVA, Alla *
21. SULTANOV, Akylbek
22. OROZBEAV, Mamat (former MP from Party of Cooperators of Kyrgyzstan)
23. ZULPUKAROV, Torobay
24. KADYRALIEVA, Yrgal *
25. ZHOOSHBEKOV, Zairbek
26. KADYROV, Bakhtiyar

Ar-Namys party:
1. KULOV, Felix (former Prime Minister)
2. ZHAPAROV, Akylbek (former Minister of Trade & Economic Development)
3. TURSUNBAY, Bakir uulu (former Ombudsman, Ambassador to Malasia)
4. MAMYROVA, Bodosh *
5. ARTYKOV, Anvar (former Ak Jol party member)
6. GUSAROV, Igor
7. TUMANOV, Kubanychbek
8. ASYMBEKOVA, Gulnara *
9. TOROBEKOV, Nurlan
10. BEKESHEV, Dastan
11. MAMATALIEV, Abdyrakhman
12. TALIEVA, Kamila *
13. MAMYTOV, Toktokuchuk
14. KALMATOV, Anarbek
15. RYSPAEV, Kozhobek
16. BADYKEEVA, Nurzhana *
17. DZHETIGENOV, Bakytbek
18. UZAKBAEV, Talntbek
19. BEKBOEV, Zamir
20. LEVINA, Tatyana *
21. OSMONALIEV, Kanybek
22. IMANALIEV, Kanybek
23. MAMTOV, Baktygul
24. ALTYBAEVA, Ainura *
25. ISAKOV, Esengul

Respublika party:
1. BABANOV, Omurbek (former MP from SDPK; then Vice-PM with Ak Jol)
2. ALIMBEKOV, Nurbek
3. PIRMATOV, Iskhak
4. SULTANBEKOVA, Cholpon *
5. ISAEV, Kanatbek
6. TOROBAEV, Bakyt (former MP from Ak Jol party)
7. SULAYMANOV, Altynbek
8. BAATYRBEKOV, Almazbek
9. AKNAZAROVA, Roza * (former MP from El-Yntymagy social democratic party)
10. BOKOEV, Kenzhebek
11. ARIPOVA, Nazarali *
12. DZHUMALIEVA, Elmira *
13. OBDUNOV, Elmurat
14. OSOMONOVA, Malika *
15. AMANBAEVA, Urulkan *
16. AYTMATOV, Kushtarbek
17. SHAYNAZAROV, Tynchtyk
18. OMURBEKOVA, Altynay *
19. BAKIROV, Mirlan
20. MURASHEV, Nurbek
21. BEKMATOV, Abdyzhapar
22. SABIROV, Maksat
23. REZHAVALIEVA, Abdulatipa *

Ata-Meken socialist party:
1. TEKEBAEV, Omurbek (former Speaker of Parliament)
2. SHER, Bolot
3. NIKITENKO, Natalya *
4. SAPARBAEV, Joomart (see RFERL's profile on this new, young MP)
5. ALYNBEKOV, Erkinbek
6. BALTABAEV, Tashpolot
7. SASYBAEVA, Asiya *
8. SAMAKOV, Karganbek
9. MAMATOV, Abdimuktar
10. MALDYBEKOV, Turatbek (former MP and Commandant of Bishkek)
11. SADYRBAEVA, Gulasal *
12. ABDYRAKHMANOV, Omurbek
13. TOLOGONOV, Raykan
14. JEENBEKOV, Ravshan (former Ak-Shumkar party leader)
15. AYTMATOVA, Shirin *
16. KALAMATOV, Baktybek
17. SABIROV, Ravshanbek
18. DOSALIEV, Akunaly

Who is in New Kyrgyz Parliament? Familiar Names and a few Women

31 out of 120 candidate are women, or about 26%, the exact same % as the previous Parliament elected in 2007. By party, Respublika surprisingly has the most women (8) and the highest percentage of women (35%), while Ata-Jurt has the lowest percentage (21%) and Ata-Meken has the fewest (4), only representing 22% of its 18 MPs. Those who study gender politics can also point to Roza Otunbayeva, the first female President in Central Asia, as a positive step forward in gender participation and equality.

Another striking observation about the published deputy list are the number of familiar names, not just from the Bakiev administration, but even from politics in the time of Akayev. Again, 24.kg has the inside scoop (article is from September, so it looks at the full party lists, not those ultimately elected). This is especially true among the party leaders: Tashiev, Kulov, Atambaev, Tekebaev and Babanov have all at one time held high office (PM, vice-PM, Speaker, etc.). While most other deputies don't enjoy such illustrious (infamous?) ties to fallen presidents, there does seem to be an overwhelming sense of politician fatigue; the same names continue to dominate Kyrgyz politics over a full decade, and through 2 dramatic government collapses. While the new class of delegates also brings some new names - like Joomart Saparbaev, a young Ata-Meken activist recently profiled by Daisy Sindelar of RFERL - the overwhelming sense, even in the midst of parliamentary enthusiasm, is that of stagnation at the upper echelons of power.

True, many of these names - Atambaev, Tekebaev, and Otunbayeva especially - have been long-time champions of democracy, making them occasional government insiders, but more often vocal activists in opposition to state power. They are undeniably "beltway" politicians, to adopt a US metaphor of government familiarity, though not necessarily "insiders." Their role as former opposition candidates - turned constitutional authors - turned majority coalition leaders is inherently suspicious, even if not necessarily inappropriate.

Still, it is worth pointing out that public opinion stands strongly against Bakiev-era administrators, even as the nationalist message they deliver continues to resonate with sectors of the Kyrgyz people. This double-edge is demonstrated by the intensity of the demonstrators outside Parliament on November 10, throwing eggs as Ata-Jurt delegates made their way to the swearing in ceremony, and conversely by the party's high finish in the October polls.

With the parliament roster now publicly available, we'll look forward to further analysis of its members, and closely watch the formation of a cabinet and ruling majority - however it eventually comes about.

If the patter of 2010 has proven any example, more unexpected twists and turns could be on the horizon.